Two Major Economic Crises in the Early Twenty-First Century and their Impact on Central Bank Independence

Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy measures, including large-scale purchase of government bonds (quantitative easing). The same approach has been taken by CBs in response to the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 even if the characteristics of this crisis differ from the previous one. As a result of both crises, CBs have become major holders of government bonds and de facto – main creditors of governments. Against rapidly deteriorating fiscal balances, CBs have become hostages of fiscal policies, which compromises their independence. Risks to the CB independence also come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist political pressures.

Temporal Analysis of Medicare Physician Reimbursement for Common Gastroenterology Procedures From 2007 to 2022

Introduction: As the U.S. population ages, gastroenterologists will provide care for an increasing number of older patients - many of whom use Medicare. In recent years there have been significant policy changes surrounding Medicare reimbursement for physicians. Understanding reimbursement trends can help reveal the financial impact of these policies on gastroenterologists. Our study aims to analyze the trends in Medicare reimbursement of common gastrointestinal (GI) services from 2007 to 2022. Method(s): The top 10 GI procedures and their respective CPT codes were identified through a joint list published by the American College of Gastroenterology, American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, and American Gastroenterological Association. The top 5 5 CPT codes relating to office/inpatient visits provided by gastroenterologists to Medicare Part B beneficiaries was identified using data from CMS. The Physician Fee Schedule Look-Up Tool from CMS was queried for the selected CPT codes from 2007 to 2022, to determine the facility reimbursement rate by Medicare for each service. The reimbursement data were adjusted to January 2022 U.S. dollars using the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index inflation calculator. Result(s): The unadjusted physician reimbursement for GI procedures exhibited an average decrease of 7.0% (95% CI, 29.9% to 24.1%) from 2007 to 2022. After adjusting for inflation, the mean decrease in physician reimbursement for procedures was 33.0% (95% CI, 235.1% to 230.9%). The mean annual growth rate in reimbursement was 22.6% (95% CI, 22.8% to 22.4%). The unadjusted physician reimbursement for inpatient and outpatient visits exhibited an average increase of 32.1% (95% CI, 4.8% to 59.3%). After adjusting for inflation, physician reimbursement for patient visits exhibited a mean decrease of 4.92% (Figure 1). Conclusion(s): The analysis revealed a steady decline in adjusted and non-adjusted reimbursement between 2007 and 2022. Decreasing Medicare reimbursement may impact health outcomes, healthcare access, and patient satisfaction. Reimbursement policies must be scrutinized particularly in the light of high inflation and increased costs due to additional costs associated with care during the COVID-19 pandemic, staffing shortages, and increased staffing salaries. (Figure Presented).

THE ECONOMY AND POLICY TRADE-OFFS

Good evening. It is a pleasure and an honour to be here at NIESR to give the annual Dow lecture. We are very lucky in the UK to have high-quality independent institutions such as NIESR focusing on the policy landscape, and in my time on the MPC I have always valued their commentary and research.

When the Big Deal Gets Smaller: Use of ScienceDirect after Cancellations

This study investigates how article downloads from ScienceDirect changed after Temple University Libraries downsized its all-inclusive Elsevier big deal bundle to a selective custom package. After the libraries lost current-year access to nearly half of Elsevier's active journals, the total downloads from Elsevier journals declined by 16.2 percent over three years. Combined use of still-subscribed and open access journals fell 10.6 percent in the same three years, suggesting that the drop in total use is due not only to the loss of journals but also to factors that would affect the remaining journals, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and a slight decrease in enrollment. Patrons may have substituted articles from still-subscribed and open access journals for those that were canceled, though the data are not conclusive. Reliance on open access appears to have increased.

The Pandemic Waves' Impact on the Crude Oil Price and the Rise of Consumer Price Index: Case Study for Six European Countries

This study examines the response of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in local currency to the COVID-19 pandemic using monthly data (March 2020–February 2022), comparatively for six European countries. We have introduced a model of multivariate adaptive regression that considers the quasi-periodic effects of pandemic waves in combination with the global effect of the economic shock to model the variation in the price of crude oil at international levels and to compare the induced effect of the pandemic restriction as well and the oil price variation on each country's CPI. The model was tested for the case of six emergent countries and developed European countries. The findings show that: (i) pandemic restrictions are driving a sharp rise in the CPI, and consequently inflation, in most European countries except Greece and Spain, and (ii) the emergent economies are more affected by the oil price and pandemic restriction than the developed ones.

2023 Outlook of Economy and Real Estate Markets in Japan

[...]the 2022 real estate transaction market in Japan was favorable in terms of both prices and transaction volume. Because the Overnight Index Swap ("OIS") 10-year rate of the Japanese Yen (not subject to the BOJ's YCC) is trading at a level close to 0.9%, and if the market is believed to consider the appropriate level of the long-term interest rate for the Japanese yen to be much higher than 0.5%, if JGB's yield continues to remain at around 0.5% level, the possibility of further policy revisions by BOJ will increase. The positive spiral of stable price increases with stable wage growth, which the government and BOJ assume as precondition for price stability, is not functioning, raising concerns about a downturn in the Japanese economy due to a decline in personal consumption. Because of this mixed economic picture, unless extreme conditions such as a sharp acceleration of price hikes occur, it is unlikely that a major change in monetary policy, i.e., a halt in monetary easing, will be implemented before the change of the BOJ Governor scheduled for April 2023. According to data disclosed by Sanko Estate, a major leasing broker in Japan, the vacancy rate for large-scale buildings (standard floor size: over 7,000 sqf) in the 23 wards of Tokyo, which was at its lowest level of 0.69% in the first quarter of 2020, has risen to 4.52% as of November 2022 due to cancellation of floors as a result of behavioral restrictions caused by COVID-19, reduction in corporate activities, and changes in the way offices are used due to the spread of work-from-home.

Housing prices in emerging countries during COVID-19: evidence from Turkey

PurposeBy considering the rapid and continuous increase of housing prices in Turkey recently, this study aims to examine the determinants of the residential property price index (RPPI). In this context, a total of 12 explanatory (3 macroeconomic, 8 markets and 1 pandemic) variables are included in the analysis. Moreover, the residential property price index for new dwellings (NRPPI) and the residential property price index for old dwellings (ORPPI) are considered for robustness checks.Design/methodology/approachA quantile regression (QR) model is used to examine the main determinants of RPPI in Turkey. A monthly time series data set for the period between January 2010 and October 2020 is included. Moreover, NRPPI and ORPPI are examined for robustness.FindingsPredictions for RPPI, NRPPI and ORPPI are carried out separately at the country (Turkey) level. The results show that market variables are more important than macroeconomic variables;the pandemic and rent have the highest effect on the indices;The effects of the explanatory variables on housing prices do not change much from low to high levels, the COVID-19 pandemic and weighted average cost of funding have a decreasing effect on indices while other variables have an increasing effect in low quantiles;the pandemic and monetary policy indicators have a negative and significant effect in low quantiles whereas they are not effective in high quantiles;the results for RPPI, NRPPI and ORPPI are consistent and robust.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of the study emphasize the importance of the pandemic, rent, monetary policy indicators and interest rates on the indices, respectively. On the other hand, focusing solely on Turkey and excluding global variables is the main limitation of this study. Therefore, the authors encourage researchers to work on other emerging countries by considering global variables. Hence, future studies may extend this study.Practical implicationsThe COVID-19 pandemic and market variables are determined as influential variables on housing prices in Turkey whereas macroeconomic variables are not effective, which does not mean that macroeconomic variables can be fully ignored. Hence, the main priority should be on focusing on market variables by also considering the development in macroeconomic variables.Social implicationsEmerging countries can make housing prices stable and affordable, which will increase homeownership. Hence, they can benefit from stability in housing markets.Originality/valueThe QR method is performed for the first time to examine housing prices in Turkey at the country level according to the existing literature. The results obtained from the QR analysis and policy implications can also be used by other emerging countries that would like to increase homeownership to provide better living conditions to citizens by making housing prices stable and keeping them under control. Hence, countries can control housing prices and stimulate housing affordability for citizens.

The effect of the global supply chain and oil prices on the inflation rates in advanced economies and emerging markets

This study investigates the effect of global supply chain pressures and crude oil prices on the consumer price index from October 1997 to February 2022 using panel linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDLs, NARDLs). The results showed that the asymmetric effect of the global supply chain on the inflation rate is stronger when the supply chain increases than when it decreases in the long run for advanced economies and vice versa in emerging markets. A one standard deviation of the supply chain pressures has rebounded the inflation rate by about 1.7% and 0.71% for advanced economies and emerging markets, respectively. The findings establish that a 10 U.S. dollar increase in oil prices leads the inflation rate to rise by 0.1%–0.6% for all countries in the short run. However, the impact of the global supply chain index fits much better with the inflation rate than the oil prices in the short and long run, including the subprime crisis, such as the COVID‐19 outbreak, and the beginning of the Russo–Ukrainian conflict. Thus, the empirical results of the current study provide acumens for policymakers of advanced economies and emerging markets to consume green energy and make use of green technology and environmental innovations for counterbalancing the inflation issues induced by the higher rates of oil prices without halting the economic growth and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Geological Journal is the property of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The Influence of The COVID-19 Pandemics in Indonesia On Predicting Economic Sectors

Several studies have tried to prove the link between the economic sectors in Indonesia with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, research has yet to observe the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the predicted performance of regression models. This study proposes the development of previous research following the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on machine learning performances in predicting economic sectors in Indonesia. The economic sectors mentioned include the exchange rate, CPI, and stock price. The proposed methods for comparison are decision tree (DST) and random forest (RF). Comparison of prediction performance with legacy uses root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Test results show that the RF regression model has superior performance compared to DST with the best MSE, RMSE, MAPE, MAE, and r2 value of 0.010, 0.102, 0.64%, 0.100, and 0.89, respectively. Using the T-Test, we prove that the COVID-19 pandemic does not significantly affect machine learning predictions on the exchange rate but significantly affects machine learning predictions on CPI and stock prices. © 2022 IEEE.

Consumer price measurement under the first wave of the COVID-19 spread in Japan: Scanner data evidence for retailers in Tokyo

In this paper, we examine the CPI (consumer price index) measurement errors under the first wave of the COVID-19 spread in Japan. To address this question, we construct high-frequency quality-adjusted price indices by employing daily scanner data from retail stores in Tokyo. We demonstrate the importance of using price data with the wide-ranging coverage of products and outlets by making explicit adjustments for temporary sales effects and retail service quality in examining the retail price dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic as the voluntary lockdown constrained household purchasing behavior. Note that the sources of the CPI measurement errors under the COVID-19 pandemic differ significantly from those in the US, observed as wide-ranging and long-lasting stockouts. We show that downward bias, not upward bias generally advocated, was observed during the first wave of the COVID-19 spread in Japan. The magnitude of the downward bias is estimated at from −0.6 to −0.3 points on the CPI for food less perishables and eating out on the basis of cumulative changes from January 2020 to June. The contribution of the estimates to the overall CPI is −0.3% to −0.15% points on an annualized basis, considering that the estimation covers half-year and the weights are about a quarter of the overall CPI. The magnitude of measurement errors is deemed limited, and the overall trend of the CPI remains unchanged even after incorporating the estimated downward bias. It should be noted that this downward bias arises mainly from the "one-specification-for-one-item” policy by weakening the price representativeness in the Japanese CPI.

LIVING STANDARD - HIPC

The paper presents some aspects about indicators related to the standard of living in the European Union in general. The indicators took into consideration were government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data, percentage of gross domestic product, harmonised indices of consumer prices, annual average index, harmonised indices consumer prices-monthly data, annual rate of change, and food price monitoring tool. The results showed an increase of government deficit in almost all European Union countries as well as an increase of the inflation rate especially for commodity products like food.

Inflation and covid-19: An exercise for Colombia

The covid-19 pandemic distorted the pattern of household consumption. Consequently, the official fixed basket cpi could be measuring inaccurately the evolution of inflation. The exercise presented in this document, was to update the weighting structure of the basket with alternative information on consumption and household expenditures to explore how the inflation calculations could be affected during the pandemic period. The results indicate that cpi would be increasing faster than the fixed basket cpi measures reveals. © Revista de Economía del Rosario. Universidad del Rosario.

IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION FACTORS ON INFLATION RISKS DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Background: With the changes in the world economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, inflationary risks are rising in many countries, while the factors affecting the trend of inflation are becoming more global. At the same time, standard inflation risk prediction models are focused on assessing domestic factors and oil and commodity prices, while globalization factors are considered secondary and neglected. For a more objective assessment of inflationary risks, one must consider the nature and strength with which various globalization factors influence inflation. Objective: The purpose of this article is to determine the presence and nature of the relationship between the globalization factors and the level of inflation. Methods: To confirm the proposed research hypotheses, the authors use the methods of correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. Results: The findings partially confirm the hypotheses put forward about the existence of a relationship between the growth rates of consumer prices and globalization factors. The research hypothesis is confirmed in terms of the existence of a relationship between inflation risks and factors of global trade, financial, interpersonal, informational, and cultural globalization. At the same time, the study shows that the factors of political globalization do not have a significant impact on inflation risks. The inflation rate and globalization factors have a negative correlation, i.e. a high degree of globalization of the country in the world space leads to a decrease in inflation risks. © 2022, Centro Universitario Curitiba - UNICURITIBA. All rights reserved.

Can Ensemble Machine Learning Methods Predict Stock Returns for Indian Banks Using Technical Indicators?

This paper develops ensemble machine learning models (XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, and AdaBoost in addition to Random Forest) for predicting stock returns of Indian banks using technical indicators. These indicators are based on three broad categories of technical analysis: Price, Volume, and Turnover. Various error metrics like Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE) have been used to check the performance of the models. Results show that the XGBoost algorithm performs best among the four ensemble models. The mean of absolute error and the root-mean-square -error vary around 3–5%. The feature importance plots generated by the models depict the importance of the variables in predicting the output. The proposed machine learning models help traders, investors, as well as portfolio managers, better predict the stock market trends and, in turn, the returns, particularly in banking stocks minimizing their sole dependency on macroeconomic factors. The techniques further assist the market participants in pre-empting any price-volume action across stocks irrespective of their size, liquidity, or past turnover. Finally, the techniques are incredibly robust and display a strong capability in predicting trend forecasts, particularly with any large deviations.

EE265 Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) in Adults: A Retrospective Analysis of US Prevalence and Impacts of Proteinuria and Kidney Function Decline on Healthcare Resource Utilization (HRU) and Costs

Objectives: FSGS is a histologic pattern of glomerular injury with numerous causes, frequently associated with kidney disease progression and kidney failure. We examine the US prevalence of FSGS and the impacts of proteinuria and kidney function decline to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) on HRU and costs. Methods: Descriptive, retrospective analysis based on Optum® de-identified Market Clarity and proprietary Natural Language Processed (NLP) Data (2007-2020). Inclusion criteria: patients with ≥2 FSGS ICD-10 codes (N0x.1) and/or ≥2 FSGS NLP terms within 180 days and ≥30 days apart without associated negation terms. For patients with available claims data (subset of prevalence cohort), HRU/costs analyses were completed (exclusions: pregnancy, cancer, COVID-19). All costs were normalized/discounted and adjusted to 2020 USD using the Consumer Price Index. Results: Estimated standardized US prevalence of FSGS (2016–2019) is 80.86 per 1,000,000 based on US Census Bureau data. Among 320 patients with proteinuria data in the HRU/cost cohort, 60% and 36% had baseline proteinuria >1.5 or >3.5 g/g, respectively. HRU and costs, all per-patient-per-month (PPPM), increased significantly (p<0.05) with proteinuria levels ˃3.5 g/g;(≤1.5 [n=127] vs ˃1.5–3.5 [n=80] vs ˃3.5 g/g [n=113]: emergency department (ED), 0.13 vs 0.13 vs 0.23;outpatient, 3.03 vs 3.41 vs 6.01;total costs, mean $3,026 vs $4,262 vs $10,227). Advancing chronic kidney disease stage to ESKD (stage I [n=99] vs stage III [n=238] vs ESKD [n=180]: ED, 0.09 vs 0.13 vs 0.33;outpatient, 2.58 vs 3.46 vs 11.11;pharmacy claims, 3.59 vs 4.15 vs 5.00;PPPM total costs, mean $1,895 vs $3,898 vs $12,603) was also associated with significant increases in HRU and costs (p<0.05). Conclusion: For patients with FSGS, worsening proteinuria and progression to ESKD are associated with substantial HRU and costs. Approved therapies for FSGS would improve the lives of patients and reduce substantial burden to the healthcare system.

The Relationship Between the Health Services Price Index and The Real Effective Exchange Rate Index in Turkey: A Frequency Domain Causality Analysis

This paper examines whether the causal relationship between the health care price index and the real exchange rate index is temporary or permanent. To do this, we first apply the Toda- Yamamoto causality test with a structural break and then continue with frequency domain causality tests based on the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break. The results of the Toda- Yamamoto causality test with a structural break indicates that there is causality running from the real exchange rate index to the health care price index. Moreover, the frequency domain causality test results based on the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break provide evidence that the real effective exchange rate causes temporarily (in the short-and medium term) to the health care price index. The effect of the real exchange rate index on the health care price index lasts between 2 months and 8.37 months. These findings imply that there is a significant exchange rate pass-through in health care inflation in the short-and medium term. Thus, the health authorities should take into account these findings when planning health care policies in Turkey, especially health care services heavily dependent on imported materials.

IgA Nephropathy (IGAN) in Adults: A Retrospective Analysis of US Prevalence and Impacts of Proteinuria and Kidney Function Decline on Healthcare Resource Utilization (HRU) and Costs

Objectives: Globally, IgAN is the most common primary glomerulonephritis and, if not controlled, results in progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). This study examines the US prevalence of IgAN and the impacts of proteinuria and kidney function decline to ESKD on HRU and costs. Methods: Descriptive, retrospective analysis based on Optum® de-identified Market Clarity and proprietary Natural Language Processed (NLP) Data (2007-2020). Inclusion criteria: ≥2 IgAN NLP terms within 180 days at least 30 days apart without associated negation terms. For patients with available claims data (subset of the prevalence cohort), HRU/costs analyses were completed (exclusions: pregnancy, cancer, COVID-19). All costs were normalized/discounted and adjusted to 2020 USD using the Consumer Price Index. Results: Estimated standardized US prevalence of IgAN (2016–2019) is 130.17 per 1,000,000 based on US Census Bureau data. Among 253 patients with proteinuria data in the HRU/costs cohort, 45% had high-risk proteinuria (≥1.0 g/g). HRU (mean outpatient visits, 1.93 vs 4.24;pharmacy claims, 2.69 vs 3.84) and total costs (mean $1,408 vs $3,721), all per-patient-per month (PPPM), are higher (p<0.05) among patients with elevated proteinuria (<1.0 g/g [n=139] vs ≥1.0 g/g [n=114]). Advancing chronic kidney disease stage to ESKD (stage I [n=171] vs stage III [n=171] vs ESKD [n=148]: PPPM outpatient visits, mean 1.84 vs 2.70 vs 7.40;pharmacy claims, 2.30 vs 3.68 vs 4.97;PPPM total costs, mean $1,455 vs $2,499 vs $8,479) was also associated with significantly higher HRU and costs (p<0.05). Conclusions: A substantial proportion of patients with IgAN have elevated proteinuria. Elevated proteinuria and progression to ESKD are associated with a significant HRU and cost burden. Treatments that reduce proteinuria and prevent decline in kidney function have the potential to reduce the resource intensity and economic burden of IgAN.

The impact of external factors on housing prices in Lithuania

Purpose>This paper aims to identify the external factors that have the greatest impact on housing prices in Lithuania.Design/methodology/approach>The econometric analysis includes stationarity test, Granger causality test, correlation analysis, linear and non-linear regression modes, threshold regression and autoregressive distributed lag models. The analysis is performed based on 137 external factors that can be grouped into macroeconomic, business, financial, real estate market, labour market indicators and expectations.Findings>The research reveals that housing price largely depends on macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product growth and consumer spending. Cash and deposits of households are the most important indicators from the group of financial indicators. The impact of financial, business and labour market indicators on housing price varies depending on the stage of the economic cycle.Practical implications>Real estate market experts and policymakers can monitor the changes in external factors that have been identified as key indicators of housing prices. Based on that, they can prepare for the changes in the real estate market better and take the necessary decisions in a timely manner, if necessary.Originality/value>This study considerably adds to the existing literature by providing a better understanding of external factors that affect the housing price in Lithuania and let predict the changes in the real estate market. It is beneficial for policymakers as it lets them choose reasonable decisions aiming to stabilize the real estate market.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicides: A population study.

This study examines the factors associated with the change in the number of suicides per month during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2019 to 2021. For economic indicators, employment and unemployment rates, Consumer Price Index, and Consumer Sentiment Index were used. As inverse indicators of social distancing, the numbers of overseas departures, domestic trips, and movie audience were used. The monthly numbers of inpatients and outpatients for depression were included to consider the effect of the prevalence of depression. Pearson's correlation coefficient analysis and a linear regression were conducted. There was a continued decrease in the number of suicides of 1.7% in 2021 from 2020 following the 4.4% decrease in the previous year. The employment rate was positively associated with the number of suicides for males, while the consumer price index was negatively associated with the number of suicides for females. While the inverse social distancing measures were positively correlated with the number of suicides, no significant association was observed in the regression analysis. Commonly shared thoughts that the pandemic would lead to an increase in suicides by its direct negative impact on mental health or indirect impact through the aggravation of economic conditions and social distancing need to be re-examined.

Measuring Inflation under Pandemic Conditions

National statistical offices have faced unprecedented circumstances in the modern history of economic measurement. There were dramatically changing consumer expenditure patterns due to pandemic conditions, with lockdowns and fear of infection making many goods and services unavailable. We examine the implications of changing relative expenditures for the construction of Consumer Price Indexes, with special reference to the treatment of prices for unavailable products. We conclude that for many purposes, it would be useful for statistical agencies to establish a continuous consumer expenditure survey. We also examine various other practical pandemic induced CPI measurement problems. © 2022 W. Erwin Diewert et al., published by Sciendo.